How much is the ‘welfare bill’ set to increase by?

It wasn’t made clear from Mr Starmer’s and Ms Reynolds’ insurance claims that the ₤ 70 billion number shows up to refer to the forecast cost of working-age wellness and special needs benefit costs by 2029/30– not the general price of well-being investing, which is much greater. Sir Bernard at the same time was broadly correct about the forecast boost in general welfare costs by the end of the years.

Of the ₤ 64.1 billion forecast increase in total well-being spending in between 2024/25 and 2029/30, the largest aspect is pension plans and pensioner investing, which is anticipated to raise by ₤ 32 billion (approximately half of the total rise). In total amount, pensioner spending and health and wellness and impairment advantages are anticipated to account for around nine-tenths of the increase by 2029/30.

This figure shows up to describe the forecast expense of spending on health and handicap benefits for working-age adults, which is readied to reach ₤ 75.7 billion by 2029/30. General spending on pension plans and advantages is anticipated to get to around ₤ 378 billion by the end of the years.

Investing in well-being omitting pension plans and various other pensioner investing is anticipated to increase from ₤ 162.9 billion in 2024/25 to ₤ 195 billion in 2029/30, while investing in overall well-being (consisting of pension plans and various other pensioner spending) is forecast to enhance from ₤ 313.6 billion to ₤ 377.7 billion over the very same duration. (This ₤ 64.1 billion rise is what Sir Bernard was describing when he claimed “the welfare costs itself is going to climb by ₤ 70 billion”.).

This suggests that the rise in health and wellness and special needs benefit costs for working-age grownups is anticipated to make up roughly 60% of the rise in welfare costs leaving out pensions and pensioner costs by 2029/30, and around 30% of the overall increase in well-being investing (including pension plans) over this period.

This suggests general health and wellness and disability costs is anticipated to increase by a total of ₤ 25.8 billion between 2024/25 and 2029/30. This accounts for 80% of the projection rise in well-being costs leaving out pensioner investing, and 40% of the forecast total rise in well-being costs including pension plans by the end of the years.

According to the Workplace for Spending Plan Responsibility (OBR), costs on health and wellness and special needs benefits for working-age grownups is anticipated to increase from ₤ 56.4 billion in 2024/25 to ₤ 75.7 billion in 2029/30.