Conservatives vs. Reform UK: By-Election Seat Analysis

Our analysis recommends that on the whole even more seats altered hands to the Conservatives than to Reform UK. Of the 54 seats that changed hands, 17 went to the Conservatives, while 12 went to Reform. The Conservatives after that, probably, saw much more “gains” than Reform, yet they also lost six seats while Reform UK shed none, so overall saw a lower internet boost than Reform UK.

Farage’s Claim and Data Basis

We don’t understand for certain, it appears likely that this data is the basis for Mr Farage’s insurance claim, due to the fact that these numbers very closely look like those uploaded on X the exact same day by the chairman of Reform UK.

It’s true that Reform UK saw the largest internet gain in seats throughout these 121 by-elections. On 2 November 2024 Reform UK held none of these seats, and it won (and enhanced its number of seats by) 12.

Based on this analysis of the available data, it shows up that because Mrs Badenoch ended up being Conventional celebration leader on 2 November 2024, there have actually been 123 council by-elections in Wonderful Britain– and 121 of these had taken place by the time Mr Farage made his claim on social media on 11 April.

As kept in mind over, provided this evaluation counts on unofficial data sources, there may be some uncertainty over the precise numbers– but it’s clear that different methods of counting successes in current by-elections can provide an extremely different picture of celebrations’ loved one performance.

Data Sources and Methodology

So instead we have actually performed our own evaluation of information gathered by a number of widely-cited yet unofficial resources– the web sites of Open Council Information UK, Britain Elects and Liberal Democrat peer Lord Load. Where possible we have cross-checked data on outcomes in between these websites, and we located they were mostly in arrangement, though this was much less clear with results from North Ireland and therefore we have actually concentrated in this truth check on the cause Terrific Britain just.

Complete Reality evaluation of the offered information on 121 council by-elections throughout Excellent Britain because last November suggests Reform UK saw the largest net gain in seats, however extra seats altered hands to the Conservatives than to Reform UK. It’s true that Reform UK saw the biggest net gain in seats throughout these 121 by-elections. On 2 November 2024 Reform UK held none of these seats, and it won (and increased its number of seats by) 12. The Conservatives after that, probably, saw much more “gains” than Reform, but they likewise shed six seats while Reform UK lost none, so overall saw a lower internet boost than Reform UK.

The phrasing of Mr Farage’s claim doesn’t make it completely clear what it’s based on– we’ve asked his workplace and Reform UK about this and not had any type of response so far. However whether it is right or not seems to depend upon precisely what is understood by the word “gained”.

Multiple Ways to Count Seat Gains

Nevertheless, there are other methods of taking a look at these outcomes, which appears to be why some have tested Mr Farage’s insurance claim. Rather of counting the web change in the number of seats, you can rather just look at the overall number of seats “obtained” from another celebration.

It depends on how you count seats “acquired”. Complete Fact analysis of the available data on 121 council by-elections throughout Wonderful Britain considering that last November suggests Reform UK saw the largest web gain in seats, yet extra seats changed hands to the Traditionalists than to Reform UK. Labour won one of the most seats in general.

Full Reality analysis of the very best readily available information we can locate on 121 council by-elections in Wonderful Britain considering that last November recommends that Reform UK saw the biggest internet gain in seats, but extra seats transformed hands to the Traditionalists than to Reform UK. Meanwhile Work won the most seats generally.

Overall Seat Wins by Party

You might likewise just consider the general number of seats won in these by-elections, which paints a different photo again. Overall Work won the most seats in these 121 by-elections (36 ), adhered to by the Liberal Democrats (27 ), Conservatives (26) and afterwards Reform UK (12 ).

Finding main data on council by-election results across the country is tough. While specific councils release outcomes after each election, we have actually not located any kind of main source noting all the results– the Electoral Commission informed us that it doesn’t hold a centralised list.

In articles on social media previously this month, the leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage MP declared: “Given that Kemi Badenoch came to be Tory leader, Reform UK have actually acquired a lot more seats in council by-elections than any various other event.”