Chicago Crime: Pritzker’s Claim vs. FBI Data on Murder Rates

Gov. Pritzker claimed Chicago isn't in the top 30 for murder rates among big cities. FBI data shows a different picture, but murder rates are decreasing. Is Pritzker's claim accurate?

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Pritzker’s Claim on Chicago Crime Rates

Safeguarding Chicago in a current Fox Information interview, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said it was “not in the leading 30” of “huge cities” with the highest possible prices of murder. However in 2024, Chicago had the 15th greatest murder price amongst U.S. cities with at least 250,000 locals, according to FBI information. It rated greater if restricting to cities with also bigger populaces.

Pritzker, a potential Autonomous presidential competitor in 2028, made that case on Oct. 23 while being examined about crime in Chicago by Fox Information anchor Bret Baier. Criminal activity in the city has obtained a lot of interest this year, as President Donald Trump wrongly identified Chicago the world’s “murder capital” and asked for sending out National Guard troops there over the objection of regional authorities.

For our prior tale, Jeff Asher, co-founder of the consulting firm AH Datalytics, which assembles an aggregation of criminal offense data supplied by regulation enforcement companies throughout the United state, told us that just making use of cities with 1 million or even more residents was “an arbitrarily tight comparison team.”.

Contrasting Data Sources on Chicago Murders

In late August, CCJ reported that Chicago’s murder price through the first 6 months of 2025, from January to June, was 7 events per 100,000 citizens. That was down from 12.8 per 100,000 during the very same duration in 2021, for a decrease of 45%– which is approaching fifty percent.

Since the FBI does not have 2021 and 2025 data for Chicago, we turned to murder figures kept by an independent brain trust that tracks crime trends in a sampling of united state cities, the Council on Bad Guy Justice. A CCJ agent informed us that murders and murders are very closely associated, although murder consists of “some non-murder situations, such as non-negligent wrongful death.” The FBI information likewise include murder and non-negligent homicide.

Fox News Graphic and City Comparisons

“Below’s a map,” Baier stated, prior to explaining a visuals that showed up on screen. “The majority of heavily populated united state cities, 17.47 per 100,000 population. Chicago is No. 1, over Philadelphia, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, Los Angeles, New York City and San Diego.”

We don’t understand what Chicago’s last price will be for 2025, but the city appears to be headed for a considerable decrease, as the variety of reported murders and homicide victimizations had actually decreased by about 29% through Oct. 26, year over year, according to Chicago Authorities Department data.

When we asked, Pritzker’s office did not tell us exactly how he specified “big cities,” or figured out that Chicago was not amongst the 30 of them with the greatest murder rates. What visitors likewise may not have known, because neither Baier neither the graphic made it clear, is that Fox Information specified “big cities” as communities with a populace surpassing 1 million. (Chicago itself is home to roughly 2.7 million people.).

When we asked, Pritzker’s office did not inform us just how he specified “huge cities,” or identified that Chicago was not amongst the 30 of them with the greatest murder prices. Since the FBI does not have 2021 and 2025 data for Chicago, we turned to homicide numbers maintained by an independent think storage tank that tracks criminal activity patterns in a tasting of United state cities, the Council on Offender Justice.

Asher informed us that such contrasts are “normally” made among cities of 250,000 or more. Based on that requirements, St. Louis, Memphis, Baltimore, Detroit and Cleveland covered the checklist, all with murder prices of in between 30 and 54 per 100,000.

Analyzing Chicago’s Declining Murder Rate

He proceeded, “Our murder price has been halved over the last 4 years. And yearly it’s dropped by dual digits.” Pritzker after that began to claim something concerning violent criminal activity in Chicago in general when Baier interrupted to offer an aesthetic.

We previously evaluated 2024 FBI data for a September article regarding criminal activity in Chicago and found that Chicago did have the highest possible murder price in 2015– almost 17.5 occurrences per 100,000 people– among those very same nine cities. A spokesperson for Fox Information told us that the network also counted on the FBI’s information for 2024.

Pritzker does have a factor concerning murders in Chicago being down substantially because 2021– although his workplace did not offer proof that the city’s “murder price,” especially, “has been halved,” as he said.

Safeguarding Chicago in a recent Fox Information interview, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said it was “not in the top 30” of “huge cities” with the highest rates of murder. In 2024, Chicago had the 15th greatest murder price among U.S. cities with at the very least 250,000 homeowners, according to FBI information. Pritzker then began to say something about violent criminal activity in Chicago in general when Baier disrupted to give a visual.

On a calendar-year basis, CCJ’s figures from its “Year-End 2024 Update” show Chicago’s murder rate decreased from 30.1 in 2021, to 27.5 in 2022, to 23.6 in 2023 and to 21.8 in 2024. (These figures don’t sustain Pritzker’s insurance claim that the price has actually gone down “by dual numbers” annually.).